Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
